Earthquake Loss Estimation Including Transportation Network Damage

Large earthquakes have the potential of causing extensive damage and enormous economic losses. These losses are primarily attributable to the reduction in functionality of various facilities in the affected region and the rebuilding costs, and can be reduced through strategic preand post-earthquake decisions. This thesis describes an integrated methodology to estimate losses due to scenario earthquakes, with emphasis on the reduced functionality of the transportation infrastructure. The methodology integrates variables that were previously considered exogenous to the transportation system, through models for reduced industrial production capacity, and damage to lifelines, residential clusters and other structural components in an integrated framework. By modifying input parameters, one can evaluate the effect on the losses of various mitigating actions. The methodology is thus useful for prioritizing retrofitting efforts and in general for developing pre and postearthquake strategies for lowering economic losses. A case study of a New Madrid scenario earthquake is presented. Future efforts needed to improve the loss estimation capability of this methodology are identified. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Joseph M. Sussman Title: JR East Professor Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Daniele Veneziano Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering